Tile map of state-level change in total NICS checks · scrub the month slider to animate · † = permit-recheck state (Kentucky bulk batches, North Dakota quarterly)
States only (territories & DC excluded); comparison-month volume ≥ 3,000 checks · bars capped at ±60% (⫽ = off-scale, exact value labeled)
NICS checks are a demand proxy, not sales. One check ≠ one firearm: totals include permit checks and permit rechecks, multiple firearms can transfer on one check, and some permit states bypass point-of-sale checks entirely.
† Kentucky runs bulk permit rechecks in irregular batches (e.g. +1,163% MoM in July 2026 is a recheck batch, not a demand surge) and † North Dakota rechecks quarterly (January/April/July). For both, YoY is the fairer read than MoM.
Pre-law-change surges: states often spike the month before a restriction's effective date, then "decline" as volumes normalize. July 2026's biggest movers fit this pattern: Colorado set a record ahead of SB25-003 (semiautomatic purchase-permit rules effective Aug 1, 2026), and Rhode Island's July collapse (−78% MoM) follows a June rush before its assault-weapons sale ban took effect July 1, 2026. Read such swings as timing shifts, not demand changes.
Sale proxy: handgun + long gun + other + multiple check types, from the Data Liberation Project's parse of the same FBI data; it strips most permit activity but is still not a sales count.
• FBI NICS — Month/Year by State (PDF) — data through July 2026, retrieved Aug 5, 2026.
• Data Liberation Project — NICS firearm background checks CSV — through July 2026; national and state sums verified against the FBI PDF for all overlapping months (exact match).
• ATF — Current Processing Times — page last updated July 14, 2026; data as of July 1, 2026; monthly volumes cover May 2026.
• Context: Colorado Sun on the July record ahead of SB25-003 · turnto10 on Rhode Island's pre-ban rush.